Let me say right from the off that I am not a scientist. I am the son of a scientist, but I am not a scientist myself. I have no more than a very basic understanding of astrophysics; I know what it is, I know very broadly what it’s about, and I can spell it. Like most of the world’s population, I know the names of the most commonly known parts of astronomy – Mars, Jupiter, Uranus, that sort of thing. And, like most of the world’s population, my favourite constellation is Orion, because of the three stars in a row that comprise his belt. So I am not coming at this from a scientific perspective.
Or a religious one. I believe in a divine power, I don’t call it God, and I certainly don’t follow any of the individuals that came to Earth over the centuries claiming to be his son, his messenger, his hairdresser, whatever. I’m sure they were all very nice people, but they all suffered from this delusion that they were somehow more closely connected with the being that runs the Universe than the rest of us and that they were the only means by which the rest of us mere mortals could form any kind of a connection or bond with this being. I could pick holes in the Bible all day long,
Or a conspiracy theorist one. I must admit to liking a good conspiracy theory, they are entertaining, but not necessarily believable. So this blog is not going to tell you that alien species invaded Earth in 1947 and were captured by the U.S. Air Force. Perhaps they did, I have no idea. But this isn’t about that.
This is about mathematics. Or at least, the power of mathematics. Oops, I forgot to mention that I am no mathematician; indeed, I am about to confess something that I have not told anyone except my dear wife since 1982: I cheated to get into the top set in mathematics at school. We used to have this thing called a log book back in the day. It was a thin book containing loads of mathematical tables and it had an orange cover. You were allowed to take them into the examination that would determine which set you would go into for maths. We did a test paper and I wrote all the answers down inside my log book. By chance, many of the questions came up in the examination proper. I was in the top set for maths. Just shows you what a joke ‘streaming’ is in education. The feeding of children into sets that would not only determine the course of their lives but the amount of ridicule you would get if you were in the bottom set. God, it felt good to be at the top.
But I digress. There is, however, something relevant in the previous paragraph: the chance that the same questions that were on the test paper came up in the examination itself was, like, a gazillion to one. But they did. And I got into the top set for maths.
And that is the approach that I want to take here: what is the likelihood that alien life forms exist out there somewhere, hitherto undiscovered in the Universe? I would suggest that the likelihood is so high that it must almost be a certainty. And the only thing you need to do is look at the sheer power of numbers. No need for any telescopes, red-shift light analysis, or any of that gubbins. You just need to look at it numerically.
Let’s look at two of the billions, possibly trillions of galaxies out there. Ourselves, the Milky Way, and our neighbour, Andromeda. In about four billion years’ time, maybe a little longer, Andromeda is set to merge with the Milky Way in one great big galactic tango before settling into what I would like to call an übergalaxy of sorts.
In that new galaxy alone, and in the total of the two current galaxies that will go to form that übergalaxy, there will be/are something in the region of one trillion, two hundred and fifty billion stars. I’ll run that by you again, this time numerically: 1,250,000,000,000 stars. Ish. And we are the only planet with life on it, apparently. The chance of that would be the equivalent of one human winning $1,250,000,000,000 on the lottery. Obviously not impossible, but very, very, very, very, very, very unlikely.
Now, people say to me, look, Stephen, we’ve heard all this shit before and the answer is simple: if there was alien life out there, they would have visited us by now, and we would all know about it; indeed, many on Earth would be at least half-alien, and there would be another pressure group to be politically correct about.
Have we been visited by aliens before? Possibly, but I’m sceptical. I do not possess sufficient relevant scientific or historical knowledge to say categorically either way, but I do know that, whether it has happened or not, it is statistically very possible that it could happen at some time in the future, or is happening now.
Let’s say there are 1,250,000,000,000 stars in the galaxy, and, oh, 0.0000001% of them have planets spinning around them that may either be hospitable to life or already have life on them. Do you know how many potentially life-bearing planets that would be in our new übergalaxy? 1,250! That’s one thousand, two hundred and fifty, from just 0.0000001% of the galaxy. Even if you were generous, and said perhaps only one per cent of the stars in the galaxy have life, or the possibility of life, that’s 12,500,000,000 just from one per cent of what are currently these two neighbouring galaxies: Andromeda and the Milky Way.
Now, you might be thinking: come on, you can look all this stuff up on Wikipedia. Why is it of any interest to us? The simple answer is, it should be. It ought to be of interest to us. We are this pale blue dot, as Carl Sagan called Earth, orbiting our sun. Who’s to say there are no aliens out there looking at us and going, I wonder if there’s life on it? I write this stuff now because I’m thinking about it now. Neil deGrasse Tyson once said, imagine taking a cup full of water from the ocean, looking at it, and saying, there are no whales in the ocean. In the case of the Universe, and even the two galaxies under discussion in this blog, there must be plenty of whales in this ocean. x